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Autoregressive models for quantification of time-averaging uncertainties in turbulent flows
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4662-8744
Univ Manchester, Dept Mech & Aerosp Engn, Manchester M139PL, England..
Friedrich Alexander Univ Erlangen Nurnberg, Inst Fluid Mech LSTM, D-91058 Erlangen, Germany..ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9627-5903
2024 (English)In: Physics of fluids, ISSN 1070-6631, E-ISSN 1089-7666, Vol. 36, no 10, article id 105122Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Autoregressive models (ARMs) can be powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty in the time averages of turbulent flow quantities. This is because ARMs are efficient estimators of the autocorrelation function (ACF) of statistically stationary turbulence processes. In this study, we demonstrate a method for order selection of ARMs that uses the integral timescale of turbulence. A crucial insight into the operating principles of the ARM in terms of the time span covered by the product of model order and spacing between samples is provided, which enables us to develop computationally efficient implementations of ARM-based uncertainty estimators. This approach facilitates the quantification of uncertainty in downsampled time series and on a series of autocorrelated batch means with minimal loss of accuracy. Furthermore, a method for estimating uncertainties in second-order moments using first-order uncertainties is discussed. These techniques are applied to the time series data of turbulent flow a) through a plane channel and b) over periodic hills. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of ARMs in generating synthetic turbulence time series. Our study presents autoregressive models as intuitive and powerful tools for turbulent flows, paving the way for further applications in the field.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AIP Publishing , 2024. Vol. 36, no 10, article id 105122
National Category
Fluid Mechanics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-355158DOI: 10.1063/5.0211541ISI: 001328568900031Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85205964233OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-355158DiVA, id: diva2:1907941
Note

QC 20241024

Available from: 2024-10-24 Created: 2024-10-24 Last updated: 2025-02-09Bibliographically approved

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Xavier, DonnatellaSchlatter, Philipp

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