The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a non-central chi(2) -distributed random variable (RV) is often used when measuring the outage probability of communication systems. For ultra-reliable low-latency communication (URLLC), it is important but mathematically challenging to determine the outage threshold for an extremely small outage target. This motivates us to investigate lower bounds of the outage threshold, and it is found that the one derived from the Chernoff inequality (named Cher-LB) is the most effective lower bound. This finding is associated with three rigorously established properties of the Cher-LB with respect to the mean, variance, reliability requirement, and degrees of freedom of the non-central chi(2) -distributed RV. The Cher-LB is then employed to predict the beamforming gain in URLLC for both conventional multi-antenna systems (i.e., MIMO) under first-order Markov time-varying channel and reconfigurable intellgent surface (RIS) systems. It is exhibited that, with the proposed Cher-LB, the pessimistic prediction of the beamforming gain is made sufficiently accurate for guaranteed reliability as well as the transmit-energy efficiency.