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Future of food: A technology-centered path towards sustainable production in 2100
Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7378-3662
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Transport and Systems Analysis. Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5290-5704
2025 (English)In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 167, article id 103565Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We stipulate a normatively desirable scenario for food production in 2100 and formulate a specific technology-centered path to reach it. In this scenario, the human population has increased following mainstream projections and food consumption patterns remain similar to current ones, while impacts on land systems, the biosphere, freshwater use, and eutrophying emissions from food production are substantially reduced (by more than 25 %). We divide the global diet into three categories: fruits and vegetables, grains, and animal products, which together represent 88 % of the food consumed currently. In each category, we select one technology with potential to contribute substantially to the desirable scenario: vertical farming for fruits and vegetables; genetically modified (GM) crops for improved photosynthesis of grains; and realistic plant- and microbe-based substitutes for animal products. Assuming widespread adoption of these technologies in 2100, we project that the area of farmland used, the amount of eutrophying emissions, and the freshwater used would decrease by 54 %, 46 %, and 32 %, respectively. We discuss adoption challenges and suggest policies for the implementation of these technologies, finding that increased public acceptance of alternatives to animal products and GM crops are crucial. Also, abundant access to affordable fossil-free energy is a prerequisite for two of the three recommended innovations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2025. Vol. 167, article id 103565
Keywords [en]
Future of food, Planetary boundaries framework, Sustainability, Technology-centered path
National Category
Food Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-360606DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103565ISI: 001430252200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85217927706OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-360606DiVA, id: diva2:1940672
Note

QC 20250226

Available from: 2025-02-26 Created: 2025-02-26 Last updated: 2025-03-10Bibliographically approved

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Engström, Emma

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