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Predictability of Performance in Communication Networks Under Markovian Dynamics
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Information Science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9316-0414
University of Stuttgart, Germany.ORCID iD: 0009-0007-9583-6044
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Network and Systems Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4876-0223
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Information Science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6682-6559
2025 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, ISSN 0018-9545, E-ISSN 1939-9359, Vol. 74, no 11, p. 17924-17943Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

With the emergence of time-critical applications in modern communication networks such as vehicle-to-everything (V2X) systems, there is a growing demand for proactive network adaptation and quality of service (QoS) prediction. However, a fundamental question remains largely unexplored: How can we quantify and achieve more predictable communication systems in terms of performance? To address this gap, this paper introduces a theoretical framework for defining and analyzing predictability in communication systems, with a focus on the impact of observations for performance forecasting. We establish a mathematical definition of predictability based on the total variation distance between the forecast and marginal performance distributions. A system is deemed unpredictable when the forecast distribution, providing the most comprehensive characterization of future states using all accessible information, is indistinguishable from the marginal distribution, which depicts the system's behavior without any observational input. This framework is applied to multi-hop systems under Markovian conditions, with a detailed analysis of Geo/Geo/1/K queuing models in both single-hop and multi-hop scenarios. Additionally, we apply the framework to a random-walk-based model of QoS for connected vehicles experiencing changing channel conditions. We derive exact and approximate expressions for predictability in these systems, as well as upper bounds based on spectral analysis of the underlying Markov chains. Our results have implications for the design of efficient monitoring and prediction mechanisms in future communication networks aiming to provide dependable services.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2025. Vol. 74, no 11, p. 17924-17943
Keywords [en]
Observable Markov Model, Predictability, Predictive QoS, Queuing System
National Category
Telecommunications
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-366006DOI: 10.1109/TVT.2025.3576620ISI: 001621335000049Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105007421963OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-366006DiVA, id: diva2:1981496
Note

Not duplicate with DiVA 1957422

QC 20260127

Available from: 2025-07-04 Created: 2025-07-04 Last updated: 2026-01-27Bibliographically approved

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Mostafavi, SamieDán, GyörgyGross, James

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