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Deep Learning for Energy Market Contracts: Dynkin Game with Doubly RBSDEs
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematics (Div.). Department of Mathematics, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1662-0215
Department of Mathematics, Linnaeus University (LNU), Växjö, Sweden.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9065-1410
Department of Mathematics, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
2025 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We formulate a Contract for Difference (CfD) with early exit options as a two-player zero-sum Dynkin game, reflecting the strategic interaction between an electricity producer and a regulatory entity. The game incorporates penalties for early termination and mean-reverting price dynamics, with the value characterized through a doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equation (DRBSDE). To compute the contract value and optimal stopping strategies, we develop a neural solver that approximates the DRBSDE solution using a sequence of neural networks trained on simulated trajectories. The method avoids discretizing the state space, supports time-dependent barriers, and scales to highdimensional settings. We establish a convergence result and test the method on two scenarios: a benchmark symmetric game in 20 dimensions, and a CfD model with 24-dimensional electricity prices representing multiple European zones. The results demonstrate that the proposed solver accurately captures the contract’s value and optimal stopping regions, with consistent performance across dimensional settings.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025.
Keywords [en]
Deep learning, Doubly reflected BSDEs, Contract for difference, Dynkin game
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-366383DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2503.00880OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-366383DiVA, id: diva2:1982183
Note

QC 20260604

Available from: 2025-07-07 Created: 2025-07-07 Last updated: 2026-06-04Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Deep Learning and Optimal Stochastic Control with Applications
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Deep Learning and Optimal Stochastic Control with Applications
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis brings together theoretical advances in stochastic optimal control and modern deep learning techniques, with particular emphasis on applications in environmental and energy systems. The first group of contributions investigates optimal control from a theoretical perspective, developing new results and illustrating their relevance through real world applications. The second part explores deep learning methods for solving stochastic differential equations and control problems that are analytically intractable.

We begin by studying impulse control problems for conditional McKean--Vlasov jump diffusions, extending the classical verification theorem to the setting in which the state dynamics depend on their conditional distribution. We then examine an optimal control problem for pollution growth on a spatial network, formulated in a deterministic framework but capturing how environmental policies propagate across interconnected geographical regions. Finally, we develop a model for investment in renewable energy capacity under uncertainty, characterising how optimal installation strategies change in response to fluctuations in energy demand and production. These contributions show how stochastic control can be used to address pressing challenges in environmental regulation and energy planning.

The second line of research focuses on deep learning methods for backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) and related formulations, together with direct machine learning approaches for high-dimensional stochastic control. Specifically, we solve Dynkin games by reformulating them as doubly reflected BSDEs, enabling the computation of optimal stopping strategies in energy market contracts. We further develop a deep learning solver for backward stochastic Volterra integral equations (BSVIEs), extending neural BSDE methods to systems with memory. In addition, we propose a machine learning framework for renewable capacity investment under jump uncertainty, treating the problem both through a direct control learning strategy and through a newly developed solver for pure jump BSDEs.

Overall, this thesis lies at the intersection of rigorous mathematical analysis and machine learning-based approaches to stochastic optimal control. On the one hand, we show how careful modeling and theoretical results enable the formulation and study of complex, realistic control problems; on the other hand, we demonstrate how modern machine learning techniques provide powerful tools for solving these problems efficiently. The applications are motivated by urgent questions in environmental and energy sustainability.

Abstract [sv]

Denna avhandling förenar teoretiska framsteg inom stokastisk optimal styrning med moderna djupinlärningsmetoder, med särskild tonvikt på tillämpningar inom miljö- och energisystem. Den första gruppen av bidrag undersöker optimal styrning ur ett teoretiskt perspektiv, utvecklar nya resultat och visar dess relevans genom praktiskt motiverade exempel. Den andra delen behandlar djupinlärningsmetoder för att lösa stokastiska differentialekvationer och styrproblem som annars är analytiskt oöverskådliga.

Vi börjar med att studera impulskontrollproblem för betingade McKean–Vlasov-hoppdiffusioner och utvidgar den klassiska verifikationssatsen till situationer där systemets dynamik beror på dess betingade fördelning. Därefter analyseras ett optimalt styrproblem för utsläppstillväxt på ett rumsligt nätverk, formulerat deterministiskt men avsett att fånga hur miljöpolitiska beslut sprids över sammanlänkade geografiska regioner. Slutligen utvecklar vi en modell för investering i förnybar energikapacitet under osäkerhet, där vi karakteriserar hur optimala installationsstrategier påverkas av variationer i efterfrågan och produktion. Dessa bidrag visar hur stokastisk styrning kan användas för att hantera centrala frågor inom miljöreglering och energiplanering.

Den andra forskningslinjen fokuserar på djupinlärningsmetoder för bakåtriktade stokastiska differentialekvationer (BSDE:er) och relaterade formuleringar, samt direkta maskininlärningsmetoder för högdimensionella stokastiska styrproblem. Vi löser särskilt Dynkin-spel genom att formulera dem som dubbelt reflekterande BSDE:er, vilket möjliggör beräkning av optimala stoppstrategier i energimarknadskontrakt. Vidare utvecklar vi en djupinlärningsbaserad lösare för bakåtriktade stokastiska Volterra-integralekvationer (BSVIE:er), och utvidgar därmed neurala BSDE-metoder till system med minnesstruktur. Dessutom föreslår vi ett maskininlärningsramverk för investeringar i förnybar kapacitet under hopp-osäkerhet, både genom direkt styrinlärning och genom en ny lösare för rena hopp-BSDE:er.

Sammantaget placerar sig denna avhandling i gränslandet mellan rigorös matematisk analys och maskininlärningsbaserade metoder för stokastisk optimal styrning. Å ena sidan visar vi hur noggrann modellering och teoretiska resultat möjliggör formulering och studie av komplexa, realistiska styrproblem; å andra sidan visar vi hur moderna djupinlärningstekniker ger kraftfulla verktyg för att lösa dessa problem på ett effektivt sätt. Tillämpningarna är motiverade av aktuella och angelägna frågor inom miljömässig och energimässig hållbarhet.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2026. p. 305
Series
TRITA-SCI-FOU ; 2025:71
Keywords
Stochastic optimal control; optimal stopping; Deep learning; Impulse control; McKean--Vlasov dynamics; Jump diffusions; BSDEs; Renewable energy investment; Pollution control; BSVIEs; Machine learning, Stokastisk optimal styrning; Optimalt stopp; Djupinlärning; Impulskontroll; McKean–Vlasov-dynamik; Hoppdiffusioner; BSDE:er; Förnybar energiinvestering; Utsläppskontroll; BSVIE:er; Maskininlärning.
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Research subject
Applied and Computational Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-375351 (URN)978-91-8106-492-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-02-06, Q2, Malvinas väg 10, Stockholm, 10:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 2026-01-13

Available from: 2026-01-13 Created: 2026-01-12 Last updated: 2026-03-20Bibliographically approved

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