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Particle-Based, Rapid Incremental Smoother Meets Particle Gibbs
Ecole Polytechnique - CMAP, Palaiseau 91120, France.
Electrophysiology and Heart Modeling Institute (IHU-Liryc), Pessac, France.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0772-846X
2024 (English)In: Statistica sinica, ISSN 1017-0405, E-ISSN 1996-8507, Vol. 34, p. 1115-1144Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The particle-based rapid incremental smoother (PARIS) is a sequential Monte Carlo technique that allows for efficient online approximations of expectations of additive functionals under Feynman–Kac path distributions. Under weak assumptions, the algorithm has linear computational complexity and limited memory requirements. It also comes with a number of nonasymptotic bounds and convergence results. However, being based on self-normalized importance sampling, the PARIS estimator is biased. This bias is inversely proportional to the number of particles, but has been found to grow linearly with the time horizon, under appropriate mixing conditions. In this work, we propose the Parisian particle Gibbs (PPG) sampler, which has essentially the same complexity as that of the PARIS, but significantly reduces the bias for a given computational complexity at the cost of a modest increase in the variance. This method is a wrapper, in the sense that it uses the PARIS algorithm in the inner loop of the particle Gibbs algorithm to form a bias-reduced version of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on the bias and variance, as well as deviation inequalities. We illustrate our theoretical results using numerical experiments that support our claims.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Statistical Science , 2024. Vol. 34, p. 1115-1144
Keywords [en]
Bias reduction, particle filters, particle Gibbs, sequential Monte Carlo, smoothing of additive functionals, state space smoothing
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-367022DOI: 10.5705/ss.202020.0215Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85193504121OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-367022DiVA, id: diva2:1983907
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QC 20250714

Available from: 2025-07-14 Created: 2025-07-14 Last updated: 2025-07-14Bibliographically approved

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Olsson, Jimmy

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