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Modelling policy packages with combined climate, social, and macroeconomic goals: the Swedish case
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0009-0004-1907-1367
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Sustainability Assessment and Management.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8298-9200
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5600-0726
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3869-9729
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2026 (English)In: Climate Policy, ISSN 1469-3062, E-ISSN 1752-7457, Vol. 26, no 7, p. 1104-1119Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Backlashes to climate policy have raised the interest in policy packages that can simultaneously reduce emissions effectively, handle distributional effects, and reverse contemporary trends towards increased socio-economic inequalities. In this paper, we use Sweden as an example to study the effect of policy packages with combined climate, social, and macroeconomic goals. While Sweden has historically been considered a climate leader with a strong welfare state, income inequality has grown considerably. In recent years, the country has experienced a roll-back of climate policy, following debates concerning high fuel prices. Among the policy changes are reduced energy taxes on gasoline and diesel. We use the macro-econometric model E3ME, combined with micro-data for different income groups, to compare the effects of the reduced fuel taxes with other policy measures, using a similar fiscal amount. Results show that income support can compensate for high fuel prices more efficiently, while avoiding increased emissions. We further compare the effects of policy packages that combine a raised fuel tax or a progressive tax with recycling schemes. Fuel tax packages with recycling to dividends, green subsidies and public welfare can improve mitigation significantly, compensate for distributional effects, and have beneficial effects on the economy. Using a progressive tax to finance green subsidies and public welfare can combine mitigation with reduced income inequality, enhanced employment and economic growth. In both cases, deficit funding of green investments enhances policy performance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Informa UK Limited , 2026. Vol. 26, no 7, p. 1104-1119
Keywords [en]
backlash, E3ME, fuel tax, inequality, policy package, progressive tax
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-369048DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2025.2531098ISI: 001529760600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105010887048OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-369048DiVA, id: diva2:1997875
Note

QC 20260120

Available from: 2025-09-15 Created: 2025-09-15 Last updated: 2026-08-07Bibliographically approved

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Larsson, MarkusFinnveden, Göran

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