kth.sePublications KTH
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Spatiotemporal evolution of heatwaves and their impact on excess mortality in China: A historical analysis and future projection based on observations and CMIP6 simulations
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Multi-Media Pollution Cooperative Control in Yangtze Basin, School of Environmental Science & Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST), Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark.
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Multi-Media Pollution Cooperative Control in Yangtze Basin, School of Environmental Science & Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST), Wuhan, Hubei, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7113-9702
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Multi-Media Pollution Cooperative Control in Yangtze Basin, School of Environmental Science & Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST), Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Show others and affiliations
2025 (English)In: Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, ISSN 1556-7036, E-ISSN 1556-7230, Vol. 47, no 2, article id 2558168Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Heatwaves represent a significant meteorological hazard with profound societal impacts. Based on the ground observation data from National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and simulated meteorological data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the temporal and spatial evolution of heatwaves in China was analyzed, and the past, present and future heatwaves in Wuhan were quantitatively evaluated, as well as the impacts on excess mortality.Overall, heatwaves primarily occurred in Xinjiang, central China, East China, South China and parts of Southwest China, showing clear spatial heterogeneity. Projections suggest that heatwaves will expand to affect all regions of the country, with significantly longer exposure durations. Under the three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, both the annual duration and excess mortality in Wuhan are projected to show fluctuations with an overall increasing trend. After 2040, the differences in mortality among the three scenarios become more pronounced. In the high economic growth scenario, society may experience exposure to heatwaves for up to four months annually, leading to a substantial increase in mortality risks. Under the low emission, the moderate emission and high emission scenarios, the projected annual increase in heatwave-attributable excess mortality in Wuhan is approximately 4.85, 30.61, and 670.87 deaths per 1 million people, respectively.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Informa UK Limited , 2025. Vol. 47, no 2, article id 2558168
Keywords [en]
CMIP6, duration, excess mortality, heat wave, Mann-Kendall test, projection
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-370398DOI: 10.1080/15567036.2025.2558168ISI: 001569623000001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105015795279OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-370398DiVA, id: diva2:2001816
Note

QC 20250929

Available from: 2025-09-29 Created: 2025-09-29 Last updated: 2025-09-29Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Wang, Qian

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Tian, ZhiyongWang, Qian
By organisation
Building Technology and Design
In the same journal
Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects
Climate Science

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 49 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf