kth.sePublications KTH
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Analyzing crash injury severities with deep learning and advanced statistical models: An assessment of methodological challenges
Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Decision and Control Systems (Automatic Control).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6820-948X
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS, USA.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA.
2025 (English)In: Analytic Methods in Accident Research, ISSN 2213-6657, Vol. 48, article id 100405Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this research, statistical and deep learning models are applied to determine factors that affect motorcycle crash-injury severities. Four methodological challenges are considered: 1) imbalanced data (because fatal injuries are an exceedingly small portion of all resulting injury outcomes); 2) unobserved heterogeneity (because many unobserved factors will influence resulting injury severities); 3) quantification of variable effects; and 4) the possibility of temporally shifting relationships among variables. Convolutional neural networks and deep neural networks are the deep learning models considered, and random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances is the statistical model considered. Extensive experimentation indicated that data imbalance and unobserved heterogeneity could be best handled in deep learning models with a Bayesian deep neural network with a random generator and weighted loss function. With statistical modeling indicating significant shifts in model parameters over time, the data were segmented by year and both statistical and deep learning models were estimated. While techniques are available for deep learning to potentially handle data imbalance and unobserved heterogeneity, the quantification of variable effects and temporal shifts remains a challenge. For example, a comparison of variable effects show that the deep learning estimates of variable effects are generally inconsistent with the plausible values generated by the statistical models in terms of magnitudes and occasionally in terms of direction, indicating a need for improvements in deep-learning variable-effect extraction methods. The findings also show the need for future work to isolate the effect of complex temporal relationships which are currently imbedded in deep learning approaches, because the segmentation of data that has been used in statistical models to isolate temporal effects, and even the use of all data and defining new time-dependent variables, may not be a viable deep learning option due to the potential loss in predictive performance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2025. Vol. 48, article id 100405
Keywords [en]
Deep learning, Random parameters logit, Temporal stability, Unobserved heterogeneity
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-371288DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100405ISI: 001579501700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105016786308OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-371288DiVA, id: diva2:2005302
Note

QC 20251009

Available from: 2025-10-09 Created: 2025-10-09 Last updated: 2025-10-09Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Karimi Mamaghan, Amir Mohammad

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Karimi Mamaghan, Amir Mohammad
By organisation
Decision and Control Systems (Automatic Control)
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 23 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf