Urban development policies tend to promote denser cities that are more energy-efficient and less transport reliant than urban sprawls. This will strongly affect ecosystem services (ES) that cities are dependent on but tend to disregard. If a shift is made towards prioritizing ES and planning with nature-based solutions whilst also meeting the need for new housing, urban regions could become forerunners in planning for a sustainable transformative change. These sometimes conflicting demands need to be balanced to inform critical urban policy and planning decisions, which require planning support tools that can analyze and assess such conflicts. According to the main policy of the regional plan for Stockholm, urban densification is a leading principle so urban growth will be promoted in already established urban cores throughout the region up until 2060. Simultaneously, the County Administrative Board has launched an action plan for green infrastructure (GI), aiming to strengthen biodiversity and ES of the region. The aim of this study is to explore local and regional impacts on ES for two different future scenarios of urban development and compare them with the GI plan to discuss scale problems, spatial mismatches and possibilities for multi-functionality, related to planning practice. The study area is the southern part of Stockholm metropolitan region, embracing three neighbouring municipalities in a gradient from urban to peri-urban. The dense scenario simulated the expected urban densification with no regard to local greenery, while the green-dense scenario simulated dense housing units but scattered enough to allow at least 30% canopy coverage within 300 m from residential buildings. ES capacities were estimated for mitigation of heat island effect and flood risk, and access to local and regional nature-based recreation. This was compared to the GI plan to estimate overall regional scale impacts. The results showed that urban dense development had apparent drawbacks from a local ES perspective, while the green-dense scenario left room for local ES but instead spread more in the landscape; impacting on regional recreation values and GI. Proportions and location of nature areas related to urban densification versus sprawl need further attention for balancing different types of ES. The methodology is useful for urban planning support and will thus enable integration of ES in policy and planning decisions of metropolitan regions, with the goal to increase their sustainability.
QC 20260120