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Likelihood-free Inference with Jensen–Shannon Divergence for Simulator-based Models with Categorical Output
Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Helsinki Institute of Information Technology (HIIT), University of Helsinki, Pietari Kalmin katu 5, 00014, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Sognsvannsveien 9, 0372, Oslo, Norway; Parasites and Microbes, Wellcome Sanger Institute, CB10 1SA, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Sognsvannsveien 9, 0372, Oslo, Norway.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Helsinki Institute of Information Technology (HIIT), University of Helsinki, Pietari Kalmin katu 5, 00014, Helsinki, Finland.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.). Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Helsinki Institute of Information Technology (HIIT), University of Helsinki, Pietari Kalmin katu 5, 00014, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1489-8512
2026 (English)In: Sankhya A, ISSN 0976-836XArticle in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Likelihood-free inference for simulator-based statistical models has recently attracted an interest, both in the machine learning and statistics. The primary focus of has been to approximate the posterior distribution of model parameters, either by various types of Monte Carlo sampling algorithms or deep neural network -based surrogate models. Frequentist inference for simulator-based models has been given much less attention to date, despite that it would be particularly amenable to applications, where implicit asymptotic approximation of the likelihood is expected to be accurate and can leverage computationally efficient strategies. Here we derive a set of results to enable estimation, hypothesis testing and construction of confidence intervals for model parameters using asymptotic properties of the Jensen–Shannon divergence. Such asymptotic approximation offers a rapid alternative to more computation-intensive approaches and can be attractive for diverse applications of simulator-based models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature , 2026.
Keywords [en]
Bayesian optimization, Bernstein polynomials, Moments of multinomials, Shannon entropy, Sufficiency, Voronovskaya’s asymptotic formula, ϕ-divergence, χ2-divergence
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-377339DOI: 10.1007/s13171-026-00434-zISI: 001686803600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105029739251OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-377339DiVA, id: diva2:2041874
Note

QC 20260226

Available from: 2026-02-26 Created: 2026-02-26 Last updated: 2026-02-26Bibliographically approved

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