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Enhanced extremes without intensification of South America’s water cycle from 1980 to 2010
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1406-3806
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Water and Environmental Engineering. Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9408-4425
2026 (English)In: Communications Earth & Environment, E-ISSN 2662-4435, Vol. 7, no 1, article id 454Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

South America hosts one of the world’s largest hydrological systems, yet terrestrial water responses to warming and human influences remain poorly constrained. Here we compare observational and model-based datasets across 95 hydrological catchments, including the Amazon and La Plata basins, to assess trends and extremes in the South American water system during 1980-2010. All datasets consistently show no continental-scale intensification (no increase) of mean precipitation, runoff, or evapotranspiration, challenging expectations of generalized terrestrial water-cycle intensification under warming. Nevertheless, the datasets show shifts in water-flux seasonality and extremes between the first and second halves of the study period. Wet-season high flows increased in the Amazon Basin and dry-season low flows declined in the La Plata Basin, indicating increasing flood and drought risks, respectively. These results highlight a regionally differentiated, complex evolution of the South American hydroclimate.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature , 2026. Vol. 7, no 1, article id 454
National Category
Climate Science Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-383057DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03661-2ISI: 001775827400005Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105039917659OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-383057DiVA, id: diva2:2066709
Note

QC 20260605

Available from: 2026-06-05 Created: 2026-06-05 Last updated: 2026-06-05Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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